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Can Yunnan drought justify the Pu-erh price increase?

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original article: http://www.puercn.com/puerchanews/news/43477.html


云南干旱还会是2013年普洱茶涨价的一个因素吗?
Can Yunnan drought justify increased Pu-erh prices in 2013?


 2009年入秋以来,中国西南等部分地区降水较少,气温偏高,出现持续干旱。近期,旱情仍呈发展态势。
Since Autumn 2009, South Western China has seen a lack of precipitation and high temperatures, which created a drought. Nowadays, the situation is still worrying.

  虽然旱情对云南省茶叶生产有较大影响,但茶叶消费弹性大,价格上涨对普通消费者影响不大。
Even though the drought has had a severe impact on tea production, despite irregular consumption, the price increase has not impacted the demand. 

  据统计,云南省茶叶产量约占国内总产量的13%,其中春茶占省内茶叶产量的25%至30%。云南省农业厅预计,2010年省内春茶将因旱灾减产50%左右,其中普洱春茶减产约60%。受此影响,去年普洱茶收购价格涨幅已超过20%,最高的超过70%。
According to statistics, Yunnan tea represents 13% of the Chinese tea production, 25 to 30% if we only consider Spring tea. The Yunnan Agricultural Department estimates that, in 2010, the drought reduced production by 50% overall and by about 60% for Spring tea. As a consequence of the drought, the price of tea last year increased by 20% on average, and up to 70% in some villages.


  由于国内普洱茶产量占茶叶总产量的比重不足4%,且目前库存充裕(东莞普洱茶藏量占普洱茶总量的2/3),干旱减产不会影响市场供应。
As a result, Pu-erh tea does not even account for 4% of the total Chinese production nowadays, yet, the Pu-erh stock remains large (two thirds of the Pu-erh tea is stored in Dongguan, near Guangzhou), therefore, the drought should not have an influence on the supply.

  在全国消费能力提高、物价都涨的情况下:2013年普洱茶春茶价格涨是一定的,不然茶农怎么脱贫,茶商怎么赚钱?但小编我认为云南干旱了这么几年,今年应该不会还用干旱做为普洱茶涨价的因素吧?*
In China, the consumption should continue to increase and the prices do the same: Pu-erh tea will surely be more expensive in 2013. Still, will the farmers get out of poverty? Will the tea shops make money?  I think the Yunnan drought has been around for years, can it still be used as an argument to justify higher prices?


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